The research team of the Standing Economic Committee and experts proposed a fiscal and monetary support package of about VND844,000 billion for economic recovery and development in 2022 - 2023.
The economy is showing signs of missing a beat, lagging behind
Presenting a lecture on some suggestions for fiscal and monetary policy to support the recovery of socio-economic development at the Vietnam Economic Forum 2021, morning of December 5, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist BIDV (HM:BID), a representative of the research team of the Standing Economic Committee and experts, said that Vietnam's economy "is showing signs of missing rhythm, missed opportunities, and lagging behind" due to the impact of the pandemic. Covid-19 pandemic.
Mr. Luc analyzed that GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 6.17% and the whole year of 2021 is forecast to increase only about 2%. Besides, the unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 3.98%. Many industries are severely affected.
Since then, Mr. Luc said that the promulgation of financial and monetary policies to promptly support socio-economic recovery and development is urgent in the current context.
According to BIDV's chief economist, the current fiscal and monetary policy space is "still".
"The room for expansion of fiscal policy is still there and is somewhat more favorable than monetary policy", Mr. Luc commented and analyzed, the 2021 budget revenue is likely to reach 100% of the plan, the state budget deficit Water and public debt were well controlled in the previous period, while the fiscal support size of nearly 3% is still quite modest.
Meanwhile, according to Mr. Luc, the conditions of the money market and banks are now more positive than in the previous period, but there is still room to lower interest rates and increase credit growth, but not much when interest rates are at the lowest level. for 20 years; capital absorption of the economy is still weak.
Since then, Mr. Luc said that fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery and development must affect both aggregate supply and aggregate demand because currently "demand is weak and supply is congested". He also suggested that support packages must be feasible and implemented quickly and effectively with mainly employees and employers.
Having to accept the budget deficit increases by 1% per year
From the analysis, Mr. Luc and the team of experts proposed a financial and monetary support package with a total value of about 844 trillion VND, concentrated in the two years 2022 - 2023. In which, fiscal policies are about 678,395 billion VND (8). .34% GDP); monetary policies of 65 trillion (0.8% of GDP), social security policies of 12,800 billion (0.16% of GDP) and other policies of about (37,650 billion).
Support policies as proposed by the research team. Photo: Gia Han
The policies include VAT reduction, social insurance fee reduction, environmental protection tax reduction in 2022, tax reduction, domestic car registration fee, interest rate support, loan guarantee for small and medium enterprises...
Mr. Luc also proposed to support rent for foreign workers to work in 4 key economic regions with the amount of 1 million VND/month for 3 months for 2 million workers.
In addition, Mr. Luc also proposed to reduce electricity and telecommunications charges by 10% in 2022 with a value of about 26,650 billion VND. At the same time, mobilizing more investment from the State Capital Management Corporation in enterprises is about VND 50 billion.
Mr. Luc said that with the actual value of the support package over about VND 445,760 billion (about 5.12% of GDP), the resources for the support package include cost reduction, promoting equitization and divestment of enterprises. state, allow the use of deposit insurance, social insurance to buy government bonds, review non-budget funds such as the Public-Utility Telecommunication Fund, the Science and Technology Fund in localities and businesses, and accept use foreign reserve fund if necessary.
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