Economic losses in 2 years can reach 500,000 billion VND

 

Mr. Nguyen Thanh Phong said that the Covid-19 epidemic caused a lot of economic damage in the past 2 years. To recover, he proposed to focus on public investment, boost domestic consumption and export.

At a high-level discussion session to discuss economic recovery solutions at the Vietnam Economic Forum 2021 on the morning of December 5, Nguyen Thanh Phong - Deputy Head of the Central Economic Commission - said that if 2020-2021 does not have a representative During the pandemic, Vietnam's GDP may grow up to 7%, but in 2021 it is expected to grow only 2.5%.

"If calculating the damage in 2020, the damage value is about 160,000 billion VND, 2021 is expected to lose 346,000 billion VND. In the total of 2 years, the amount of damage in terms of economic value is about 507,000 billion VND, if calculated. The current price is up to 847,000 billion VND, equivalent to 37 billion USD," he said.

"Export and investment attraction are important factors"

In order to reduce the damage, Mr. Phong said that it is necessary to quickly find measures and ways to restore the momentum of Vietnam's economic growth. "For countries with rapid growth, they rely on a large external market and expand their production scale and collect foreign currency to import necessary equipment. The markets of Japan, China, Taiwan.. . are all export-based, investment is high," he acknowledged.

Deputy Head of the Central Economic Commission discussed at the forum. Photo: Quochoi.

Therefore, the limit of economic growth depends on the ability to supply and compete. "In which, investment is a necessary condition, export is a sufficient condition, consumption is an additional condition, digital transformation is a factor of the times. In particular, it is necessary to focus on digital technology investment", he stressed. strong.

At present, encouraging domestic consumption is essential, but excessive investment will reduce saving, thereby reducing investment. Therefore, the exploitation of the domestic market should focus on the production of consumer goods instead of imports as at present.

Besides, he said that exports and foreign investment are important factors to sow expectations and confidence for domestic investors. When exports are high, investment increases, although the economy is difficult, investor confidence and resilience will be faster.

For example, in the period 2011-2015, Vietnam was quite unstable in terms of macroeconomics, inflation increased, bad debt was strong, public debt, large budget deficit was large, but economic growth remained high in the region. Because the growth rate of import and export in this period reached 17.5% and foreign investment reached 2.54%.

"Therefore, exporting and attracting domestic investment is very important. But state investment still plays a leading role, creating a foundation for promoting foreign investment and private development," he acknowledged.

Mr. Phong said that besides taking the initiative by public investment, Vietnam also needs to pay attention to lowering bank interest rates, re-establishing the labor system plays a decisive role. Currently, domestic consumption faces many difficulties, exports are hindered by high logistics costs, high medical costs...

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