Based on the fair valuation method with the starting date of January 10, 2022, the fair price bracket of the futures contracts being traded on the market is shown as follows:
The opportunity cost in the pricing model is adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free bill interest rate (Government bill) will be replaced by the average deposit interest rate of large banks with term adjustment suitable for each type of futures contract.
In the trading session on January 7, 2022, VN30-Index had the third correction session in a row after testing the range of 1,560-1,580 points (historic peak in November 2021). The Black Opening Marubozu candlestick pattern appeared, showing investors' pessimism about the market's prospects.
Currently, the index is falling to the nearest support at the 50-day SMA. If this line still holds, the situation can be optimistic again.
The Stochastic Oscillator and the MACD have leveled off their upward momentum, showing that the uptrend is weakening. However, the index's cash flow was still abundant as the trading volume remained above the 20-day average
BOND MARKET FUTURE CONTRACT
Based on the fair valuation method with the starting date of January 10, 2022, the fair price bracket of the futures contracts being traded on the market is shown as follows:
Note: The opportunity cost in the pricing model is adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free bill interest rate (Government bill) will be replaced by the average deposit interest rate of large banks with term adjustment suitable for each type of futures contract.
Investors should not buy these contracts at the moment. Because the contracts are priced quite high compared to the theoretical price.
Economic Analysis & Market Strategy, Vietstock Consulting Department
Xem thêm:
