In fact, the bad debt ratio of 8.2% (as announced by the State Bank) is not as worrying as the potential bad debt, when credit capital flows "wrong" address in the context of high credit growth, bad debt in the near future.
NPLs are high, but credit growth in 2021 is quite impressive at 12.97%, causing many worries. According to the State Bank, in 2021, credit will continue to flow into five priority areas: agriculture - rural areas, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), exports, supporting industries and high-tech industries.
But public opinion also raises the question, is credit capital really pouring into 5 priority areas or is pouring into securities and real estate (real estate)? Specifically, in the 2021 credit growth figure of 12.97%, what is the ratio of banks lending to real estate and securities?
For many years, lending rates for securities were barely disclosed to the public. Besides the numbers announced by the State Bank, perhaps the figures of the General Statistics Office (GSO) are quite surprising. Firstly, the investment growth index still increased higher than last year, in which State investment and FDI decreased by 2% and more than 1%, respectively.
However, the proportion of private investment capital has increased, now accounting for about 60% of investment capital of the whole society, mainly from loans from credit institutions (credit institutions), not enterprises' own capital. Meanwhile, investment efficiency in 2021 is very low, bringing GDP growth at only 2.58%. This is evidence that the efficiency from credit capital investment (through the indirect channel of banks lending to businesses) is quite low. And when investment efficiency is low, more bad debts inevitably arise for banks.
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