The extent and duration of the global inflation shock has surprised most of the central banks and institutions that make economic forecasts.
The world economic situation in 2021 can be summed up in a few lines, namely, the explosive recovery in consumer demand has not been met by the supply side, which has been strongly affected by the stagnation, disruption. of the supply chain.
The picture of the world
The supply squeeze has made the global economy grow slower in the third quarter of 2021 than most organizations predicted. The developed economies hardest hit are the US, Germany, and Japan as a result of recent supply chain disruptions.
However, the global economic growth in 2021 is still forecasted by many organizations at 5.5-5.7%, the highest increase since 1973, the year that witnessed both growth stagnation and stagnation. both high inflation.
In 2022, in general, the forecast of organizations is in the range of 4.1-4.6%, and the reason for the decrease in growth rate compared to 2021, in addition to the return to the status quo. normal, but also due to a sharp slowdown in China's growth.
The response of the country's authorities proved slower than expected. Although in the near future, it is possible that the Chinese government will again roll out easing measures to stimulate growth, the country's growth is forecast to be only below 5% in 2022.
In 2022, consumer demand will be more focused on services, while strong investment growth will expand the supply of goods, and economic stimulus packages will be recovered. However, the concern for central banks is the risk that inflationary pressures will spread.
World inflation in 2022 is expected to cool down. The hot rise in commodity prices since March of this year was sparked by a boom in consumer demand, stemming from the economic stimulus packages of the governments of developed and developing countries, especially the US.
In 2022, consumer demand will be more focused on services, while strong investment growth will expand the supply of goods, and economic stimulus packages will be recovered.
However, the concern for central banks is the risk that inflationary pressures will spread. People in many countries already see the effects of inflation on their wallets, and this effect becomes even more severe when it is combined with an energy price shock. Inflation expectations are therefore increasing.
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