Vietstock - The challenge of economic growth is huge
Vietnam cannot continue to use extreme anti-epidemic measures anymore. The outlook for economic growth depends largely on the pandemic response strategy. Besides, social security support packages and promoting public investment also play an important role in the recovery in the coming time...
GDP growth forecast of VEPR
That is the assertion of Assoc. Prof (HN: Assoc. Recently held by the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR).
Overview of the economic situation in the third quarter of 2021, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh gave rather "dismal" numbers. Specifically, GDP in the third quarter decreased by 6.17% over the same period last year, of which: the service sector decreased by 9.28%, industry and construction decreased by 5.02%; agriculture, forestry and fishery increased slightly by 1.04%. Growth of the health sector and social assistance activities reached 38.56%, the highest among industries.
The rest of the industries grew at the lowest rate in the past 10 years, in which food service was the industry with the strongest decline, down 54.8%; revenue and consumer services decreased by 28.3%. In the third quarter, the total number of newly registered enterprises was 36.9 thousand enterprises, down more than 50.1% over the same year last year.
Bad debts of the total listed banks
Referring to the economic prospects of the fourth quarter of 2021, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh said that the serious economic decline in the third quarter with heavy socio-economic consequences will take a long time to overcome. Okay. The transfer of orders of some FDI enterprises, the departure of workers from the city may become long-term problems if Vietnam does not make appropriate changes.
Regarding commercial activities, the export turnover in 9 months increased to 18.8% but only 5.2% in the 3rd quarter; import turnover in 9 months increased by 30.5%, only in the 3rd quarter was 22.6%. After 9 months, the trade balance had a deficit of about 2.55 billion USD (the same period last year had a surplus of 16.66 billion USD).
Meanwhile, the sharp increase in the price of raw materials, input materials, logistics costs and disease prevention will, sooner or later, be transferred to consumer prices. Besides, the disruption in the circulation of goods, farmers have a good harvest but cannot consume products, causing them to reduce production. This is the cause that can push up food prices at the end of the year.
Since then, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham The Anh believes that the growth challenge in 2021 is huge. Therefore, VEPR offers two economic forecast scenarios for 2021.
In the worst scenario, ie the disease is likely to re-emerge in Vietnam, causing the "closed-open" situation to repeat in some places where infections appear, orders continue to leave Vietnam due to If the production schedule cannot be guaranteed, a labor shortage may occur because workers are still insecure. In this scenario, GDP growth for the whole year will be only 1.0-1.5%.
With a good scenario: the whole country can agree on measures to adapt to the epidemic and still ensure that production and circulation of goods are not disrupted, production and consumption activities will recover slowly but surely. . The forecast for this scenario is, GDP growth for the whole year is 2.0-2.5%.
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